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101.
本文研制设计了一包含海洋表面边界层和大气辐合反馈过程的热带太平洋海气耦合异常模式。进而利用该模式对ENSO循环进行了成功的模拟。通过对模式ENSO循环的演变特征及其形成机制的细致分析,揭示了ENSO暖位相的一种机制。 相似文献
102.
对流边界层(CBL)中的污染扩散是非高斯型的。本文在下列三个假设下建立了双高斯型几率分布函数(PDF)模式:1.对流边界层任一确定高度铅直速度W的几率分布函数pw由两个高斯分布迭加而成;2.从污染源释放的粒子具有源高的铅直速度几率分布,且其轨迹是线性的;3.粒子在地面的反射为全反射,在混合层高度Zi为全反射或有部分吸收。然后分析了三个高度上铅直速度W的一些统计特征量,比较了由PDF模式计算的横风向积分浓度和Lamb的数值模拟[1-3],Deardorff的水槽模拟[4-6]结果,并用美国CONDORS计划的外场试验资料[7]对PDF模式进行了验证,结果均相当一致。 相似文献
103.
104.
随机地震模型及反应谱分析 总被引:2,自引:0,他引:2
本文以实际地震加速度的频谱特性和相位谱特性为依据,仿概率统计理论中的高斯概率密度函数,建立了随机地震加速度频数学模型。 相似文献
105.
本文在考察了节理化岩体的断裂力学特征的基础上,结合现代分形几何原理,建立起追踪裂纹裂分形模型,对不连续岩体的断裂韧性的分形效应进行了深入研究,并通过压剪试验得到难。 相似文献
106.
107.
1901-1995年气候变化导致陆地生态系统净吸收碳 总被引:2,自引:0,他引:2
The spatial and temporal variability of land carbon flux over the past one hundred years was investigated based on an empirical model directly calculating soil respiration rate. Our model shows that during 1901-1995, about 44-89 PgC (equals to 0.5, 0.9 PgC/yr respectively) were absorbed by terrestrial biosphere. The simulated net ecosystem productivity (NEP) after the 1930s was close to the estimated value of" missing C sink” from deconvolution analysis. Most of the total carbon sink happened during 1951-1985 with the estimated value of 33-50 PgC. Three major sinks were located in the tropics (10°S-10°N), Northern mid-latitudes (30°-60°N) and Southern subtropics (10°-40°S). During 1940s-mid-1970s, carbon sinks by terrestrial ecosystem increased with time, and decreased after the mid-1970s. These may be due to the ch anging of climate condition, as during the 1940s-1970s, temperature decreased and precipitation increased, while after the mid-1970s, an opposite climate situation occurred with evident increasing in temperature and decreasing in precipitation. Usually, warmer and dryer climate condition is not favor for carbon absorption by biosphere and even induces net carbon release from soil, while cooler and wetter condition may induce more carbon sink. Our model results show that the net carbon flux is particularly dependent on moisture / precipitation effect despite of temperature effect. The changing of climate in the past century may be a possible factor inducing increases in carbon sink in addition to CO2 and N fertilizer. 相似文献
108.
利用卫星云图作广西强降水短时预报 总被引:6,自引:2,他引:6
构造天气学意义明确的卫星云图状态函数模型,在对云层进行分类的基础上,定量提取卫星云图参数,通过与云图模板的相似运算寻找短时预报指标。试报结果表明,这种方法对提高强降雨落区的短时预报准确率是可行的。 相似文献
109.
This paper presents the results of a study of a watershed experiencing the pressures of land-use change resulting from urban development. The study was undertaken to facilitate an understanding of the water balance of the watershed by developing and implementing watershed procedures that are to be addressed in a watershed plan. There were three components to the research: firstly, observation of the effects of spatially distributed rainfall measurements and their effect on modelling were assessed. Secondly, the model was then calibrated by observing how differing techniques can discretize both the landscape (e.g. land-use and soil type) and incoming precipitation. Finally, a modelling methodology was developed to integrate a Geographic Information System and a hydrologic model (e.g. Storm Water Management Model) in a water balance analysis on a watershed basis. Results show that, under certain conditions, kriging spatially distributed rainfall values can help predict rainfall at ungauged (virtual) sites. Discretization of a watershed was found to affect the differences between measured and generated runoff volumes; however, this can be refined with calibration. It was seen that a strong correlation between measured and predicted rainfall values did not always guarantee a strong relationship between measured and generated runoff Recommendations include the use of a longer time series of rainfall, streamflow and predicted rainfall to observe temporal variations, and the need to assess the differences in modelled rainfall values generated by various surface interpolation methods (e.g. Inverse Distance Weighting and other kriging options) currently available in GIS packages. 相似文献
110.
María Jos Domínguez-Cuesta Montserrat Jimnez-Snchez Edgar Berrezueta 《Geomorphology》2007,89(3-4):358-369
A geomorphological study focussing on slope instability and landslide susceptibility modelling was performed on a 278 km2 area in the Nalón River Basin (Central Coalfield, NW Spain). The methodology of the study includes: 1) geomorphological mapping at both 1:5000 and 1:25,000 scales based on air-photo interpretation and field work; 2) Digital Terrain Model (DTM) creation and overlay of geomorphological and DTM layers in a Geographical Information System (GIS); and 3) statistical treatment of variables using SPSS and development of a logistic regression model. A total of 603 mass movements including earth flow and debris flow were inventoried and were classified into two groups according to their size. This study focuses on the first group with small mass movements (100 to 101 m in size), which often cause damage to infrastructures and even victims. The detected conditioning factors of these landslides are lithology (soils and colluviums), vegetation (pasture) and topography. DTM analyses show that high instabilities are linked to slopes with NE and SW orientations, curvature values between − 6 and − 0.7, and slope values from 16° to 30°. Bedrock lithology (Carboniferous sandstone and siltstone), presence of Quaternary soils and sediments, vegetation, and the topographical factors were used to develop a landslide susceptibility model using the logistic regression method. Application of “zoom method” allows us to accurately detect small mass movements using a 5-m grid cell data even if geomorphological mapping is done at a 1:25,000 scale. 相似文献